“Nigeria, Algeria, and Egypt Poised to Be Top Gas Suppliers in Africa”

From 2023 to 2027, the dominance in the African natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply market is anticipated to be established by Nigeria, Algeria, and Egypt. This projection emerges from insights provided by the African Energy Chamber in its State of African Energy report for August 2023.

The report reveals that the estimated natural gas supply for Africa in 2023 is approximately 25.5 billion cubic feet (Bcf/d), reflecting a 1% year-on-year increase compared to the previous year, 2022. Looking ahead, the long-term potential for supply, in alignment with global trends, is set to witness a growth of 7%, reaching 27.4 Bcf/d by 2025, followed by a nearly 30% expansion to 32.8 Bcf/d. Further into the future, a significant increase of about 65% is foreseen, raising the supply to 41.6 Bcf/d by 2035 in comparison to the 2023 levels.

Additionally, the report highlights that long-term commercial flows from Africa are poised to remain relatively steady, ranging between 27 to 28 Bcf/d throughout the remainder of the current decade and the upcoming one, before gradually entering a phase of decline.

Short-term gas supply

A part of the report stated:

• “Short-term natural gas supply from Africa is expected to see an increase from 2023 levels of 25.5 Bcf/d to just over 27 Bcf/d in 2024 and stay relatively flat at about 27 Bcf/d till 2027.
• “Algeria, Egypt, and Nigeria are expected to drive the majority of the natural gas supply with an average of 80% of the total African gas coming from these three countries. Individually, the short-term output of these three countries is estimated to stay relatively flat.
• “Algeria is expected to see a growth from 10 Bcf/d in 2023 to 11 Bcf/d by 2027. Egypt is expected to stay flat at 6.25 Bcf/d. Nigeria is expected to fluctuate marginally between 4.5 Bcf/d and 5.5 Bcf/d. 

The AEC report further highlighted the fact that Africa has pledged greater focus on the monetization of discovered natural gas, thereby ensuring proper usage of gas as a transition fuel and also limiting emissions from rampant gas flaring. It however noted that in Nigeria, the “Decade of Gas” policy launched in March 2021, has maintained a snail-like pace in implementation.

Nigeria’s Decade of Gas is a government-led initiative aimed at harnessing the country’s vast gas reserves to drive economic growth and development

A part of the report stated;

• “Two years after its declaration, Nigeria’s ‘Decade of Gas’ policy has recorded underperformance at a paltry 5% to date, as opposed to the 85% benchmark set by the federal government.”

What you should know

In the June 2023 Statistical Review of Energy Report, it was highlighted that Nigeria witnessed a decline in its natural gas production, reaching 40.4 billion cubic meters in 2022. The country’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports also experienced a decrease, totalling 19.6 billion cubic meters in 2022.